Monday, June 23, 2014

Copper Short: Crowded Trade, Could Be Short Squeeze Coming

Interesting article about "net short" in copper futures contracts reported today in Wall Street Journal .Net short means that of all the contracts "long" and " short" in copper futures the net position is short bet contracts on the physical copper commodity.When did eveyone have it right about the direction of anything except time? The catalyst is the thesis that copper in storage at Chinese port of Qingdao is in jeopardy of being forced to sell on the open market. The reason is the loans have gone bad and crditors will want the collateral sold to pay back debt. Sounds feasible. But what would happen if not as many loans actually went bad? Or what if , and this my gut feel, that the metal in storage is securing more than one loan! The Chinese are known for cooking the books. If that were the fact then from over supply estimates an actual under supply exists. Of course whatever the facts turn out to be the demand for copper now is more because of greedy hedge funds. Time to buy a some copper.

No comments: