Tuesday, July 18, 2017

BlackRock: Short The Bubble Stock

Yesterday BlackRock reported second quarter earnings that narrowly missed estimates. BlackRock is the largest money manger.It has $ 5.6 trillion under management.They are now experiencing a kind of being of victim of their own success syndrome. ETF's a.k.a. known as exchange traded funds are getting a bigger share of new inflows by eager stock market investors. Problem is that ETF's have much lower management fee. Hence the shortfall in earnings. Hence the squeeze in profitability. Chairman and President of BlackRock Larry Fink simultaneously with the earnings miss release announced his firm would switch to more use of artificial intelligence when picking stocks.Larry praised AI. But he also stated that the headcount at BlackRock would be the same next year as it is today.In other words AI's supposed market expertise is secondary. Lopping heads is the real reason so to combat profit squeeze.Actually AI is more expensive than monkeys throwing darts at a stock page which has been proven to be a better performer than pros picking stocks.In 1973 Princeton University professor Burton Malkiel wrote " Random Walk Down Wall Street" . In the book Malkiel states " A blind folded monkey throwing darts at a financial newspapers stock page could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts."Actually the underlying metaphysics of that result was the fact that there were more smaller capitalization stocks on the page than large ones. Consequently the smaller stocks would probably do better over the long run. Bottom line is that BlackRock is an expensive stock. It's market cap is six times sales. It also trades at 2.50 times its book value. It yields 2.50 percent. But its stock trades at $423.00 per share. So a 3% loss on the stock rubs out the dividend return but what's going to happen to the 420.00 left over? I'm short BlackRock. It's the perfect bubble stock in a bubble market.

1 comment:

Barry Leonardini said...

What will happen to Blackrock when sellers in their ETF's can't get a reasonable bid? The answers is many many lawsuits. And maybe a criminal charge.