Thursday, August 03, 2006

Carlyle Group : A Sure Bet ?

First blow it up and then rebuild it. That is the implied corporate charter description of the $ 50 billion Carlyle Group. It is the politically well-connected firm that has a board of directors and investors that include former President George H.W. Bush, Former Prime Minister of Britain John Major, former Defense Secreatary Frank Carlucci, former Secretary of State James Baker and other financial omnivores who thrive on war and peace.

Recently Carlyle launched a new venture. It's a hedge fund. The moves suggests that the flow of valuable information ,some might call it inside knowledge of government policies , would be better used and implimented/leveraged by dealing in securities, real estate trusts and in the futures markets. This has the added advantage of hiding behind anonymous corporate shells with off-shore addresses. Hedge funds are largely unregulated.

Carlyle opportunities could come in many ways. For instance, Bush I knew that Bush II was going to try to remake the political map of the Middle East. Therefore crude oil futures and war -making vendors would be a nice place for investments. How about base closings? Real estate trusts could be set up on an ad hoc basis for land acquistions from the government at friendly prices. How about knowing when to start acquiring Iraqi or Lebanese real estae.? Knowing when peace was near would be a sure bet.

So what could go wrong with this Carlyle scheme? Maybe one day the criminals who thrive on war will organize one but no one will show up to fight it.

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